COVID19 statistical analysis

UK is still the sick man of Europe. Remember what Hancock wrote to my MP in reply to a question from me in March: Mr Philip Hollobone (Con) My constituents are struggling to understand why we are not banning flights from quarantined areas of north Italy. Matt Hancock The reason is that there are many UK citizens in that area who may want to come home. Also, crucially—this is very important—the evidence shows that banning flights from affected areas does very little to protect us. Indeed, Italy was the only country in Europe that banned flights from China earlier in the progress of this disease: it did not work, and now Italy is the epicentre of the European outbreak. Hmmm, sounds like arrogance and hubris, doesn't it? So Matt, where exactly did you say was the epicentre of the European outbreak? London, perhaps? Cause for resignation or sacking, along with that cretin Cummings and the PM himself in my view. One might excuse such arrogance if these people had not all faile

Here are some highlights of letters that I wrote to my Member of Parliament and to the UK government Prime Minister, Health Minister, the Shadow Health Minister and others on the subject of CO|VID-19. I received no reply to any of them except from Philip Hollobone, my local MP, who messaged Matt Hancock on my behalf and got a fairly terse reply. 1st March my email to MP: : 1mar: We are now no longer part of the nonsensical "freedom of movement of people" dogma that pervades the EU. This could be a deadly conceit on their part. We will see how it pans out for them. In my view, we should look to closing the Channel Tunnel and shutting off flights and ships not only from certain parts of CHina but from S. Korea, Italy, Iran and possibly others as this develops. Failure to act on this holds enormous risks in my view. I don't believe the platitudes from the WHO and some of the talking heads on TV. They are ignoring the high case fatality rate of this disease and assumin

UK COVID-19 forecasts from WHO reports up until  Day 91: 22/4/2020 Independent forecasts and charts: Cases: Pessimistic trend curve 386,804 Optimistic trend curve 292,973 Mathematical Model 342,337 Deaths:  Most optimistic 27,793 Most pessimistic 50,355 New charts uneil Day 93 but basic trend and forecasts have not changed in any significant way:

UK COVID-19 forecasts from WHO reports up until  Day 91: 22/4/2020 Independent forecasts and charts: Cases: Pessimistic trend curve 386,804 Optimistic trend curve 292,973 Mathematical Model 342,337 Deaths:  Most optimistic 27,793 Most pessimistic 50,355

The peaks of daily new cases have been reached and passed in most European countries now, at slightly different times. Her is a table showing the effect of the lockdown / physical distancing strategies and the time taken to reach a peak in new cases. What will also be very important is the strength of the declines after the peaks. It's OK to claim that things are improving when the R0 reproduciton number of the disease gets under 1 (past the peak) but it needs to get as close to zero as possible and weak policies will take much time to achieve this.

UK and Italy seem to be converging towards similar outcomes if you look at this style of chart which I find very useful: daily rate of change versus existing cases: Cases: Deaths: Spain and France added for comparison: See also