UK still the sick man of Europe worst by far - charts.
UK is still the sick man of Europe.
Remember what Hancock wrote to my MP in reply to a question from me in March:
Mr Philip Hollobone (Con)
My constituents are struggling to understand why we are not banning flights from quarantined areas of north Italy.
Matt Hancock
The reason is that there are many UK citizens in that area who may want to come home. Also, crucially—this is very important—the evidence shows that banning flights from affected areas does very little to protect us. Indeed, Italy was the only country in Europe that banned flights from China earlier in the progress of this disease: it did not work, and now Italy is the epicentre of the European outbreak.
Hmmm, sounds like arrogance and hubris, doesn't it? So Matt, where exactly did you say was the epicentre of the European outbreak? London, perhaps? Cause for resignation or sacking, along with that cretin Cummings and the PM himself in my view. One might excuse such arrogance if these people had not all failed dismally with the cost of what will come to around 45,000 lives in this first wave, which will likely nowhere near be completed before the second one comes, unless we stay locked down for months to come with extreme economic destruction and hardship to come, not that some are not suffereing from that already.
A very good friend of mine who works in care has just been laid off because 21 elderly residents died in the care home where he worked. Why? Well, lack of testing is extremely likely to be a major cause. Perhaps untested patients being sent back from the hospital and infecting the home? Plus lack of testing for staff. Just a suggestion.
UK - big WIDE epidemic curve, very slow decline hints at R0 = 0.8 or 0.9.
Europe's curves far better thought still tragic in deaths terms. R0 likely to be nearer to be 0.5. Why the failure in the UK?
Italy, Germany, France and Spain. Forecasts from 20 April are still matching reality pretty well. Less updating was done on France and Spain forecasts - they were not adjusted from a long time ago and use trend lines going way back to early March:
Remember what Hancock wrote to my MP in reply to a question from me in March:
Mr Philip Hollobone (Con)
My constituents are struggling to understand why we are not banning flights from quarantined areas of north Italy.
Matt Hancock
The reason is that there are many UK citizens in that area who may want to come home. Also, crucially—this is very important—the evidence shows that banning flights from affected areas does very little to protect us. Indeed, Italy was the only country in Europe that banned flights from China earlier in the progress of this disease: it did not work, and now Italy is the epicentre of the European outbreak.
Hmmm, sounds like arrogance and hubris, doesn't it? So Matt, where exactly did you say was the epicentre of the European outbreak? London, perhaps? Cause for resignation or sacking, along with that cretin Cummings and the PM himself in my view. One might excuse such arrogance if these people had not all failed dismally with the cost of what will come to around 45,000 lives in this first wave, which will likely nowhere near be completed before the second one comes, unless we stay locked down for months to come with extreme economic destruction and hardship to come, not that some are not suffereing from that already.
A very good friend of mine who works in care has just been laid off because 21 elderly residents died in the care home where he worked. Why? Well, lack of testing is extremely likely to be a major cause. Perhaps untested patients being sent back from the hospital and infecting the home? Plus lack of testing for staff. Just a suggestion.
UK - big WIDE epidemic curve, very slow decline hints at R0 = 0.8 or 0.9.
Europe's curves far better thought still tragic in deaths terms. R0 likely to be nearer to be 0.5. Why the failure in the UK?
Italy, Germany, France and Spain. Forecasts from 20 April are still matching reality pretty well. Less updating was done on France and Spain forecasts - they were not adjusted from a long time ago and use trend lines going way back to early March:
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