Lockdowns and their potential good effects on case numbers.

Effects of lockdowns vs. South Korea’s Strategy.

14+ days from lockdown to peak new daily cases?

UK Sort of “Lockdown”
PM’s speech 23 March pm. “Lockdown” starts 24 March.
16 days from then would be 9 April but look for any potential improvements 14 days from the speech, which would be 6 April.
This would be in line with Italy's and Spain's experience of peak new cases around 14-16 days after lock down actually started, perhaps 17 days. See table and text below:

*South Korea’s Strategy

S Korea locked down some military bases but not whole regions, instead carrying out mass testing, especially in Daegu and Cheongdo and compulsory quarantining serious cases in hospital and less serious and suspected cases elsewhere (often at home).

BBC report by Hyung Eun Kim, BBC Korean Service, Seoul:
‘Warning government signs are everywhere. They say: "Three ways to prevent further infection: wear a mask at all times; wash your hands properly with soap for more than 30 seconds; and cover yourself when coughing."’

npr.org report:
‘"Testing is central" to the outbreak response, said Kang, "because that leads to early detection. It minimizes further spread." And it allows health authorities to quickly isolate and treat those found with the virus.
They've used testing aggressively to identify cases — not only testing people who are so sick that they're hospitalized but also mild cases and even suspected cases. They've quarantined tens of thousands of people who may have been exposed to confirmed cases.
The vast majority of the people ordered to quarantine at home are perfectly healthy and never do get sick, but the few who do develop symptoms can be quickly isolated further. ‘

Straits Times 31 March re: S Korea:
‘The new mandatory isolation for all arrivals will go into effect on April 1, Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun said at a government meeting.’

BBC 21 Feb
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51582186

NPR 26 Mar
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down?t=1586015421104

Straits Times 29 Mar
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/south-korea-reports-105-new-coronavirus-cases-total-now-at-9583


Italy’s Lockdowns

21 Feb some places in Lombardy locked down
8th March 16m people N Italy
9th March pm all of Italy

I was analysing Italy’s trend from 24 Feb
Italy trend worsened 4th March to 8 March

RESULT
Peak new cases 6557 on 22 March
Also 2nd peak 6153 on 27 March
plus 5959 on 28 March
plus 5974 on 29 March.
Average peak date around 25 March.
TIME TAKEN APPROX. 16 DAYS LOCKDOWN TO PEAK.
Peak new deaths 971 28th March: 19 DAYS.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Letters I wrote to UK Government re COVID19

Here are some highlights of letters that I wrote to my Member of Parliament and to the UK government Prime Minister, Health Minister, the Shadow Health Minister and others on the subject of CO|VID-19. I received no reply to any of them except from Philip Hollobone, my local MP, who messaged Matt Hancock on my behalf and got a fairly terse reply. 1st March my email to MP: : 1mar: We are now no longer part of the nonsensical "freedom of movement of people" dogma that pervades the EU. This could be a deadly conceit on their part. We will see how it pans out for them. In my view, we should look to closing the Channel Tunnel and shutting off flights and ships not only from certain parts of CHina but from S. Korea, Italy, Iran and possibly others as this develops. Failure to act on this holds enormous risks in my view. I don't believe the platitudes from the WHO and some of the talking heads on TV. They are ignoring the high case fatality rate of this disease and assumin
Read more

UK very slow downtrend COVID not as good as Europe

Europe's curves are still looking better than the UK's but still tragic in deaths terms. R0 likely to be nearer to be 0.5. In UK R0 could be 0.8+ but I am not i the business of calculating that because it is only an instantaneous snapshot measure anyway. What matters are results. UK, Italy, Germany, France and Spain. Forecasts from 20 April are still matching reality pretty well. Less updating was done on France and Spain forecasts - they were not adjusted from a long time ago and use trend lines going way back to early March. These charts are updated as of 11 June but forecast curves are not updated. This shows that the forecasts have held for nearly 2 months. The I present comparisons between UK and other large population European countries. A picture paints a thousand words. Google and YouTube as usual are  making it more and more difficult to use older browsers forcing people to buy new computers. What a scam. I have shown them on YouTube here (only 7 minutes long):
Read more