My UK forecast is turning out wrong, thank God. The UK was on a trajectory to disaster until two days ago, 04 April. Our performance was worse than Italy, France and Spain at similar times. In view of what happened in Italy, I looked at the leak new cases, which came at the same level (about 4 days at ~5900-6,500 in a single day) but a little earlier than I had forecast weeks ago. This encouraged me to look for a more optimistic trend for Italy. I noticed that the peak of new cases had first occurred (the actual highest day) about 13 days after the full lockdown of the country on 9th March, bearing in mine that there was already a lockdown of some limited regions in the north and then of the entire Milan area prior to 9th March. So in the previous post, I explored whether the cases peaking seems to be related to the start of the full lockdown measures and it seems that for Spain and probably France too, there is a period of about two weeks. This also happened in China but the epi...
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