Pandemic Smoking Gun Possibility: Rest of world under-performing China COVID-19 new cases.
The rest of the world under-performs China with greater % increases in COVID-19 new cases. It could be that modest sized case clusters are increasing in countries outside China but are being controlled - but the evidence is pointing towards a bias in trend towards cases beginning to spread outside of China faster than inside over about the last 10 days.
The following two charts show clearly that the rest of the world is dramatically underperforming the regions in China outside of Hubei (Rest of China) and also is underperforming China as a whole including Hubei where Wuhan is situated.
This could be the first sign of global pandemic conditions. It's a smoking gun in a sense, in my view. It's not surprising the the WHO is saying that "the window of opportunity" for containment is closing.
The charts are self explanatory. The first chart EXCLUDES cases from the Diamond Princess to highlight that the case figures endogenous to the rest of the world are deteriorating. The second chart includes the Diamond Princess but that is a unique situation that can skew the numbers. What I am looking for here are signs of expansion in the rest of the world as a whole within the infected countries and comparing the performance to China.
The epidemic got away in Wuhan in Hubei province but now seems to be coming under some kind of control with extraordinary measures being taken. Similarly in the rest of China, where the daily % increase case rates have usually been lower than Wuhan/Hubei.
Against both metrics, the rest of the world, that has had ample warning is UNDERPERFORMING SIGNIFICANTLY! The annotated charts explain themselves.
In each chart, the plot shows the % of new cases that are emerging in the rest of the world versus the whole of China and the rest of China (ex-Hubei).
The following two charts show clearly that the rest of the world is dramatically underperforming the regions in China outside of Hubei (Rest of China) and also is underperforming China as a whole including Hubei where Wuhan is situated.
This could be the first sign of global pandemic conditions. It's a smoking gun in a sense, in my view. It's not surprising the the WHO is saying that "the window of opportunity" for containment is closing.
The charts are self explanatory. The first chart EXCLUDES cases from the Diamond Princess to highlight that the case figures endogenous to the rest of the world are deteriorating. The second chart includes the Diamond Princess but that is a unique situation that can skew the numbers. What I am looking for here are signs of expansion in the rest of the world as a whole within the infected countries and comparing the performance to China.
The epidemic got away in Wuhan in Hubei province but now seems to be coming under some kind of control with extraordinary measures being taken. Similarly in the rest of China, where the daily % increase case rates have usually been lower than Wuhan/Hubei.
Against both metrics, the rest of the world, that has had ample warning is UNDERPERFORMING SIGNIFICANTLY! The annotated charts explain themselves.
In each chart, the plot shows the % of new cases that are emerging in the rest of the world versus the whole of China and the rest of China (ex-Hubei).
The following chart has extra data to include the Diamond Princess but this needs to be excluded now I feel. This chart gave me the original warning a couple of days ago and has been updated since then:
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