Rest of World new cases streak ahead of China to 1000 today.

Since I made my last post, the Rest of World new cases of COVID-19 have streaked ahead of China to 1000 today against around 350 for China  Now there are uncertainties in the figures but we have to take them for what they are. China is on a clear path of limitation with a kind of S-curve chart of epidemic cases, whereas the rest of the world is on a clearly exponential increase of case totals and daily new cases. The daily new cases gives the rate of change. A genuine exponential curve indeed does have an exponential rate of change. That is high school maths. Of course, this kind of increase will also show a straight line upslope on a log chart and that indeed is the case. 

 The new chart of RoW vs China vs global new cases is here:

 Recent days magnified:

 As can clearly be seen on the overall graph for all cases, the wedge is opening up on the global line versus the china line meaning that rest of world cases have separated from the China trend to the upside and are in a different mode.

 My current forecast for China is 88,000 cases by April and 3,500 deaths by May and an end to the China epidemic then. 

 The rest of the world situation is unforecastable right now but is developing to the upside fast.

The epidemic / pandemic is probably going to develop something like this. The China curve will be around 88,000 cases high but the sizes of the other curves are unknowable. Could be 100, could be 1,000,000+.

 If there is a big outbreak elsewhere, the chart could be more like this:

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