Rest of World rate of Change is faster than in China for COVID cases.

Hi All,

 The following chart shows that COVID19 novel coronavirus cases in the rest of the world are now rising at a faster percentage rate than in China - on four different metrics. See chart below.

 Four lines are represented. All have started to slope upwards. Explanation below.


Purple line: Total rest of world cases vs Chinese cases as %. Started to rise mainly due to rapid increase in Diamond Princess ("International Conveyance") cases.

 Red line: Rest of World EXCLUDING the Diamond Princess cruise ship has just started to trend up vs the China total.

 However, China includes Wuhan in Hubei which has been the epicentre and has suffered the worst death rates and the worst case numbers so far. I noticed a significant difference between the rates of growth in Hubei province versus the rest of China. Hubei has risen faster than Rest of China during the whole epidemic and has taken up an ever higher percentage of Chinese cases.

 Therefore, I concluded that it was important to compare the rest of world cases to the rest of Chinese cases outside Hubei province ( this includes all other areas such as Guandong, Beijing, Shanghai, etc to which I am paying particular attention).

 The upper two lines are from that calculation.

 Green line: Total rest of world including cruise ship versus ret of China. Rest of world has trended sharply up from  2% tro 6% versus rest of China in only 2 weeks (trebled).

 Blue line: Rest of world EXCLUDING the Diamond Princess has begun to trend upwards versus Rest of China after a low plateau.

 The day numbers are the reporting days for the World Health Organisation Situation Reports. Day 1 was 21 January publication (20th January figures).

 Conclusion: Even exclusing the exceptional Diamond Princess cruise ship situation, there is an uptrend in the rest of world cases versus Chinese cases - especially when considering Chinese cities and provinces outside Hubeu privince. This latter figure is the one we probably should be watching (the PURPLE LINE) since it measures the relative standard of the world versus the "normal" Chinese cities.



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