COVID-19. Updated forecasts for China. Rest of world unforeseeable except a couple of days ahead.

Here are my updated forecasts for China COVID-19 total cumulative cases and deaths. The rest of the world situation cannot be forecasted right now, except for a couple of days ahead because the cases are in exponential or parabolic uptrends and are not limited by any policy response, as seen in the previous two posts.

 The China forecasts now exclude the rest of world cases. Previously the forecast was a global one but this no longer applies due to the breakouts in so many countries adding to a significant percentage of total cases.

 These trends in % rate of change were used for the forecasts for China. They are exponential decays in the daily rate of change, which have fitted well for the last few weeks:

 The forecasts are subject of reliability of data used from the WHO daily situation reports and subject to the current quarantine conditions in China not being lifted until the outbreak has ended. Here they are:

 1. Cumulative cases in China: 86,000.
    Epidemic could end at 86,000 cases in early April:

2. Cumulative Deaths in China: 3,500
    Epidemic could end at 3,500 deaths in late April:

 The above total cases forecast would be the top parts of the S-Curve shown for China in this main cumulative cases chart (green line here):

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