COVID-19. Very tentative rest of world forecast hint at minimum 600,000 to 1,000,000 documented cases.

I have attempted to find a trend in the world data outside China. These are highly uncertain but a couple of very weakly declining trends are showing on two charts. These are extremely approximate and I would say that these are bare minimum forecasts, especially given the obvious understatement of case numbers and testing delays in some countries - but we have to go with whatever data we have however imperfect or lagging.

 Here, the daily % day over day change against time. First, the forecast of 617758 cases and then the treeline that gives it, which is very tentative right now:

Here, the new graph showing the % daily change against the number of cases at the time. Versus the caseload, the decline in rest of world cases (purple) is much, much slower than that of China (yellow) at the same point (20000-30000 cases). The China line converges on 80000-90000 as is clearly seen bit the rest of world like would go out to around 1,000,000 (one million) cases.




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