Italy forecasts fairly consistent at 200,000-250,000 cases for last 3 days.
My forecasts for the past three days have all given total final case numbers for Italy as coming to around 200,000-250,000 cases. In additon, two earlier forecasts gave around 210,000 and 255,000.
Italy forecasts for end of epidemic cumulative COVID-19 cases, using data up to date given (latest first):
The trend of decreasing percentage daily changes seems to be forming:
Unfortunately, the trend still predicts there is a long way to go. Italy is at 35,713 cases as of WHO report 59 (19 March 2020). The forecast at the moment is for a halt at 248,891 (purple line):
The forecast also gives the peak of the new cases per day at 5293 on 1st April 2020:
This log scale graph compares Italy with Spain, Germany, France and the UK. Note that the Italy line is becoming shallower again, making the forecasting possible. Compare this with the first chart above with the decreasing % daily increases in cases. It can be seen that Spain is still on a the sharpest exponential uptrend. France and Germany have barely started to fade in % increases and UK is almost exactly exponential at a constant 28.6%/day increase - doubling every 3 days. All could easily come to meet Italy in the coming weeks. This may continue until the strictest quarantine measures are put into place, which will too late for a lot of victims:
Now, there is a deterioration in the data for Italy as of 21 March that gives 350,000 cases for Italy. First attempt at forecast for total Italy deaths is 48,000. Data for other nations deteriorated over past 2 days.
Italy forecasts for end of epidemic cumulative COVID-19 cases, using data up to date given (latest first):
248,891 March 19th
234,607 March 18th
240,766 March 17th
The trend of decreasing percentage daily changes seems to be forming:
Unfortunately, the trend still predicts there is a long way to go. Italy is at 35,713 cases as of WHO report 59 (19 March 2020). The forecast at the moment is for a halt at 248,891 (purple line):
The forecast also gives the peak of the new cases per day at 5293 on 1st April 2020:
This log scale graph compares Italy with Spain, Germany, France and the UK. Note that the Italy line is becoming shallower again, making the forecasting possible. Compare this with the first chart above with the decreasing % daily increases in cases. It can be seen that Spain is still on a the sharpest exponential uptrend. France and Germany have barely started to fade in % increases and UK is almost exactly exponential at a constant 28.6%/day increase - doubling every 3 days. All could easily come to meet Italy in the coming weeks. This may continue until the strictest quarantine measures are put into place, which will too late for a lot of victims:
Now, there is a deterioration in the data for Italy as of 21 March that gives 350,000 cases for Italy. First attempt at forecast for total Italy deaths is 48,000. Data for other nations deteriorated over past 2 days.
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