Italy's extremely hard won success in controlling the epidemic

I must salute Italy for their extremely hard won success in controlling the epidemic as of WHO reporting day 68 (28 March 2020)

 I now share my forecasts over the past several days for the end of the Italy epidemic. They are coming together around 325,000 cases:

 324001 mar28th
328190 mar27th
326803 mar26th
345729 mar25th
364957 mar24th
335034 mar24th
382533 mar23rd
395385 mar22nd
343188 mar21st
292436 mar20th
248891 mar19th
234607 mar18th
318868 mar17th

Here is the trendline of their % daily rate of change:


 Forecast curve with R0 values implied:


The deaths trend gives a final toll of 42,672: case fatality for confirmed cases of 13.17%:

Peak new daily cases comes down a bit to 6,685 on 02 April (soon, hopefully!) and peak deaths at 938 on 5th and 6th April:
















Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Letters I wrote to UK Government re COVID19

Here are some highlights of letters that I wrote to my Member of Parliament and to the UK government Prime Minister, Health Minister, the Shadow Health Minister and others on the subject of CO|VID-19. I received no reply to any of them except from Philip Hollobone, my local MP, who messaged Matt Hancock on my behalf and got a fairly terse reply. 1st March my email to MP: : 1mar: We are now no longer part of the nonsensical "freedom of movement of people" dogma that pervades the EU. This could be a deadly conceit on their part. We will see how it pans out for them. In my view, we should look to closing the Channel Tunnel and shutting off flights and ships not only from certain parts of CHina but from S. Korea, Italy, Iran and possibly others as this develops. Failure to act on this holds enormous risks in my view. I don't believe the platitudes from the WHO and some of the talking heads on TV. They are ignoring the high case fatality rate of this disease and assumin
Read more

UK very slow downtrend COVID not as good as Europe

Europe's curves are still looking better than the UK's but still tragic in deaths terms. R0 likely to be nearer to be 0.5. In UK R0 could be 0.8+ but I am not i the business of calculating that because it is only an instantaneous snapshot measure anyway. What matters are results. UK, Italy, Germany, France and Spain. Forecasts from 20 April are still matching reality pretty well. Less updating was done on France and Spain forecasts - they were not adjusted from a long time ago and use trend lines going way back to early March. These charts are updated as of 11 June but forecast curves are not updated. This shows that the forecasts have held for nearly 2 months. The I present comparisons between UK and other large population European countries. A picture paints a thousand words. Google and YouTube as usual are  making it more and more difficult to use older browsers forcing people to buy new computers. What a scam. I have shown them on YouTube here (only 7 minutes long):
Read more