Updated forecasts on COVID-19 Coronavirus: WHO situation report #50 data. Italy much worse, S Korea better.
Hi there. On Sunday I re-ran the forecasts for China, South Korea and Italy using the latest figures from WHO Report #49. Well now I updated them again on Tuesday from report #50.
Here are the results for the potential end of various epidemics, subject to current conditions. There is a huge change for the worse in Italy, one more point above the line has doubled the forecast.
China cumulative cases: 81,386 by end of April (change <1/day by mid-April?)
Down slightly.
China cumulative deaths: 3,395 by mid-May (change <1/day by mid-April?)
Same as previous forecast.
South Korea cumulative cases: 9,083 by 5 May (change <1/day by mid-April?)
Down from 9,938 due to new point below the trendline.
2 South Korea
The South Korea forecast has improved again yet another data points under the trend equation, this time significantly lower. This takes the total to 9083.50. (Half a person! Let's be optimistic and call it 9083! :-))
The South Korea forecast had usually been in the region of 10,000 to 12,000 with one early outlier at 14,000 but barring more significant outbreaks the epidemic is likely nearly over there, probably due to excellent and proactive containment measures.
3. Italy
I wrote that is was probably too early to attempt forecasts for Italy because it was very early days in the establishment of a trend and the trend might not be reliable. Very unfortunately, there there have been severla points above the original trendlline and actually a slight uptrend developed in the day over day % changes in cumulative cases. This means an EXPONENTIAL TREND IS STILL IN PLACE and the case numbers are actually limited only to the WHOLE POPULATION. Still, assuming that maybe there have been a number of outlying points and the downtrend will resume, the forecast is now 118,000+. This is up from previous forecasts of 16,000, 28,000 cases,51,000 and 82,000. Just a handful of days of worse than expected data and the end point is now up by a factor of SEVEN!
Here is the new graph for Italy:
Here are the results for the potential end of various epidemics, subject to current conditions. There is a huge change for the worse in Italy, one more point above the line has doubled the forecast.
China cumulative cases: 81,386 by end of April (change <1/day by mid-April?)
Down slightly.
Same as previous forecast.
South Korea cumulative cases: 9,083 by 5 May (change <1/day by mid-April?)
Down from 9,938 due to new point below the trendline.
Italy cumulative cases: 118,379 (!!) by 31 July (change <1/day by 28 June)
Up from 51,332 two days ago and 82,000 one day ago. Italy 's forecast overtook that of China on Monday night. This shows the potential of the disease. Italy is Wuhan 2.0.
Up from 51,332 two days ago and 82,000 one day ago. Italy 's forecast overtook that of China on Monday night. This shows the potential of the disease. Italy is Wuhan 2.0.
1. China
The China result has improved slightly. However, when very small rates of change are involved at the end of the epidemic, Ii suspect that some case clusters will introduce a longer tail on the data and add some to the forecast, as woulf another outbreak2 South Korea
The South Korea forecast has improved again yet another data points under the trend equation, this time significantly lower. This takes the total to 9083.50. (Half a person! Let's be optimistic and call it 9083! :-))
The South Korea forecast had usually been in the region of 10,000 to 12,000 with one early outlier at 14,000 but barring more significant outbreaks the epidemic is likely nearly over there, probably due to excellent and proactive containment measures.
3. Italy
I wrote that is was probably too early to attempt forecasts for Italy because it was very early days in the establishment of a trend and the trend might not be reliable. Very unfortunately, there there have been severla points above the original trendlline and actually a slight uptrend developed in the day over day % changes in cumulative cases. This means an EXPONENTIAL TREND IS STILL IN PLACE and the case numbers are actually limited only to the WHOLE POPULATION. Still, assuming that maybe there have been a number of outlying points and the downtrend will resume, the forecast is now 118,000+. This is up from previous forecasts of 16,000, 28,000 cases,51,000 and 82,000. Just a handful of days of worse than expected data and the end point is now up by a factor of SEVEN!
Here is the new graph for Italy:
Here is South Korea:
Italy's sad trendline going against the decay curve now:
S Korea trendline is being bettered by the data giving modest lowering of forecast again:
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