Possible 55,000 COVID-19 cases now in the UK says Chief medical Officer
Possible 55,000 COVID-19 cases now in the UK says ChiefScientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance:
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2020/03/17/around-55-000-people-have-coronavirus-across-uk-says-chief-scie/
This may be based on the idea that 1 in 1000 people die and 55 people have died so far.
The offical current confirmed case count in the UK according John Hopkins University dashboard is 1,960.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Rememer that, because the government no longer will test mild cases that do not go to hospital, the actual number of cases is bound to be much higher than the confirmed number given online from now on, in any case.
I don't know whether this 1 in 1,000 or 0.1% death rate is accurate. It's difficult because it may be evident that death rates of confirmed cases are much higher (1-7%) in various countries but if you compare this with the 2009 H1N1 swine flu epidemic, the case fatality rate of the confirmed cases at the time was a lot higher than the final figures.
Original cases were said to be 6.7 million with 14,000-18,000 deaths depending on whose figures you see but studies afterwards estimate around 200-500 million cases (possibly more) and 130,000 to 200,000 deaths and possibly as many as around 500,000. This compares with about 1 billion infections with seasonal flu per year and possible 500,000+ deaths worldwide.
The possibility is that 20,000 people will die because he said the aim is to keep the total of deaths under 20,000! this is a lot more than annual flu deaths in the UK, which ever way you slice it.
Here are annual flu reports. This is not the flu!
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports
which lead to reports with very interesting graphs showing the seasonal rates of hospital admissions for annual influenza:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/839350/Surveillance_of_influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2018_to_2019-FINAL.pdf
The graph on Page 27 is very interesting
Here are the pages on 2009 H1N1 sqine flu from Wikipedia:
Confirmed cases:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_by_country
Retrospective estimates of cases:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic
.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2020/03/17/around-55-000-people-have-coronavirus-across-uk-says-chief-scie/
This may be based on the idea that 1 in 1000 people die and 55 people have died so far.
The offical current confirmed case count in the UK according John Hopkins University dashboard is 1,960.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Rememer that, because the government no longer will test mild cases that do not go to hospital, the actual number of cases is bound to be much higher than the confirmed number given online from now on, in any case.
I don't know whether this 1 in 1,000 or 0.1% death rate is accurate. It's difficult because it may be evident that death rates of confirmed cases are much higher (1-7%) in various countries but if you compare this with the 2009 H1N1 swine flu epidemic, the case fatality rate of the confirmed cases at the time was a lot higher than the final figures.
Original cases were said to be 6.7 million with 14,000-18,000 deaths depending on whose figures you see but studies afterwards estimate around 200-500 million cases (possibly more) and 130,000 to 200,000 deaths and possibly as many as around 500,000. This compares with about 1 billion infections with seasonal flu per year and possible 500,000+ deaths worldwide.
The possibility is that 20,000 people will die because he said the aim is to keep the total of deaths under 20,000! this is a lot more than annual flu deaths in the UK, which ever way you slice it.
Here are annual flu reports. This is not the flu!
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports
which lead to reports with very interesting graphs showing the seasonal rates of hospital admissions for annual influenza:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/839350/Surveillance_of_influenza_and_other_respiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2018_to_2019-FINAL.pdf
The graph on Page 27 is very interesting
Here are the pages on 2009 H1N1 sqine flu from Wikipedia:
Confirmed cases:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_by_country
Retrospective estimates of cases:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic
.
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