Relative performance of different countries under COVID-19

This chart indicates the relative performance of different countries under COVID-19. It shows that rate of percentage daily change in cumulative case numbers versus the actual number of cases. It really illustrates the potential trajectories of the epidemics in the different nations under this pandemic.


Note the red box at 40,000 cases. The daily % increase for Spain > Italy > China.
Back at 25,000 cases, Spain and Italy were both overtaking or about to overtake China's daily % increase and the rates were not falling as fast as they did in China. This was a key indictor that Italy and soon Apin exceed China. Italy already has, sadly, in terms of deaths and is right at the point of overtaking China in terms of cases and heading to the hubndreds of thousands.

Spain is likely to have a similar fate, probably worse than Italy.

France at 25,000 cases has a % rate of increase that is approaching China's. Again, the rate of increase daily in France is not falling at the same pace as it did in China. Thus France is quite likely to overtake China also and move to over 100,000 cases in time.

The UK is following a fairly similar path to France but it is too early to tell on this chart how it will fare. However, the more rigorous rate if change charts against time that I have complied are fairly pessimistic for the UK because the rate of daily % change is again not falling fast enough to converge on an "acceptably" low final case total, whatever might be deemed acceptable in these tragic circumstances:


Global situation: World totals may be 100 times the China total:


Rest of world now dwarfing China. Compare the purple curve to the start of the other curves at bottom left in China:

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