Revised forecast for South Korea S-Curve: 10950 cases but not really enough data points yet?
South Korea is forming an S-Curve now and the daily new cases have peaked for now. Let's hope it stays that way. If so, we really need to follow their lead of transparency and diligent testing / quarantines:
The WHO figures have come in for end of day yesterday. I use these normally because you know the time-stamp for the data will be consistent. It gives 4840 cases for South Korea (the same as the number of square yards in an acre in old imperial measurements).
This moves the line a little again and gives a final forecast of 10,950 cases assuming they continue to do things right, which the really seem to be doing. As you can see, today's point is very close to the forecast line.
The WHO figures have come in for end of day yesterday. I use these normally because you know the time-stamp for the data will be consistent. It gives 4840 cases for South Korea (the same as the number of square yards in an acre in old imperial measurements).
This moves the line a little again and gives a final forecast of 10,950 cases assuming they continue to do things right, which the really seem to be doing. As you can see, today's point is very close to the forecast line.
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