Coronavirus COVID-19. The pain goes on for Italy. UK may catch up with Italy on 4 April.

My forecasts for Italy the past few days deteriorated form the 230,000-250,000 level up to the 300,000-400,00 level due to a three above trend data points in the last three days.

Italy forecasts for end of epidemic cumulative COVID-19 cases, using data up to date given (latest first):

395,385 mar 22nd
343,188 mar 21st
264,538 mar 20th
248,891 mar 19th
234,607 mar 18th
240,766 mar 17th

Peak daily new cases is forecast to be 7,620 on 5th April 2020.

 First very tentative estimate for total Italy deaths made on 21 March was 48,050, a 14% case fatality ratio from the (likely largely underestimated due to non-testing of mild cases) total cumulative case numbers.

This matches with the current fraction of 

(severe cases + deaths) / cumulative cases x 100

... as quoted currently by Worldometer. WHO does not give "severe" or "critical" case numbers.

 Secondly, it is possible that the UK will catch up with Italy by 4th April if the current trends remain in place (fully exponential for UK and a slowly decaying modified exponential trend for Italy).

Peak in daily new cases forecast chart for Italy:

Cumulative total cases forecast chart for Italy:




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