Very tentative Italy COVID19 forecast number vs Korea
It really is likely to be too early to make any reliable forccast for the end of the COVID-19 but it's never too early to take a look at the trend.
So, looking at the % day over day increases I see this. There is a tentative downtrend but the incrrease is still always over 20%/day so it seems unreliable to me. However, not to be shy, let's use it for a forecast...
The forecast Italy curve is here. The model forecasts that this epidemic (or this current epidemic - there may be more in this country) could stop at 16,000 cases if the trend continues as above. Note that there is acceleration still to come at the lower left...
The % day over day trend for South Korea is on a more potentially secure downward path, alreaady under 10% on an exponential decay curve. You can see two half lives already on this curve, one from 80% to 4%, one from 40% to 20% and one from 20% to 10%. This needs to continue!!
Italy below has a much shallower slope and therefore a longer half life. Interestingly, if you look at the Italy forecast curve, the forecast shows that the actual nominal number of cases (not the % rate but the actual case total) accelerates a while longer before it slows down, giving a fast uptrend between about 3,000 to 10,000 cases in a couple of weeks or less.
Interestingly, this sharp, almost linear increase is on the actual (the actual WHO figures) chart for China cases too, before the recent slowdown and this lasted about a fortnight too.
So, looking at the % day over day increases I see this. There is a tentative downtrend but the incrrease is still always over 20%/day so it seems unreliable to me. However, not to be shy, let's use it for a forecast...
Compare to South Korea, which has more cases now than Italy right now but a lower target of 10,900. this means that Italy is likely to overtake South Korea quite soon. Why?
The % day over day trend for South Korea is on a more potentially secure downward path, alreaady under 10% on an exponential decay curve. You can see two half lives already on this curve, one from 80% to 4%, one from 40% to 20% and one from 20% to 10%. This needs to continue!!
Italy below has a much shallower slope and therefore a longer half life. Interestingly, if you look at the Italy forecast curve, the forecast shows that the actual nominal number of cases (not the % rate but the actual case total) accelerates a while longer before it slows down, giving a fast uptrend between about 3,000 to 10,000 cases in a couple of weeks or less.
Interestingly, this sharp, almost linear increase is on the actual (the actual WHO figures) chart for China cases too, before the recent slowdown and this lasted about a fortnight too.
Comments
Post a Comment