Another warning to UK policymakers ignored for sure
Another warning to UK policymakers that will be ignored for sure:
I have sent many letters of warning to UK policy makers that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the United Kingdom especially hard if they did not change their ways. This is starting to come to fruition but I am keeping these warnings on the record until the Internet eventually deletes them so that any one of the few visitors here can see them.
Warning to UK. It is likely to be much higher figures and a much larger and more painful curve than Italy has had. I present pessimistic and optimistic curves for daily new cases of UK compared with the original forecasts taken from the largest data sets possible for Italy, France and Spain. Let this be a sever warning to complacent policymakers. Total UK cases confirmed on current trend and current testing standards could be 1-4 million if things do not improve. Note the extremely high new cases per day on the two large UK curves below.
Neil Ferguson said that (one of) the parameters for the UK was improving. Barely. I think he meant that the daily % change in cumulative cases was falling (very, very slowly). This means a prolonged and huge curve. In my view, it was a dangerously complacent statement and a kick in the teeth to the NHS people who are being given false hopes by him, Also, it is not helpful in terms of bracing the public and encouraging them to do what is needed: stay home!
I have sent many letters of warning to UK policy makers that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the United Kingdom especially hard if they did not change their ways. This is starting to come to fruition but I am keeping these warnings on the record until the Internet eventually deletes them so that any one of the few visitors here can see them.
Warning to UK. It is likely to be much higher figures and a much larger and more painful curve than Italy has had. I present pessimistic and optimistic curves for daily new cases of UK compared with the original forecasts taken from the largest data sets possible for Italy, France and Spain. Let this be a sever warning to complacent policymakers. Total UK cases confirmed on current trend and current testing standards could be 1-4 million if things do not improve. Note the extremely high new cases per day on the two large UK curves below.
Neil Ferguson said that (one of) the parameters for the UK was improving. Barely. I think he meant that the daily % change in cumulative cases was falling (very, very slowly). This means a prolonged and huge curve. In my view, it was a dangerously complacent statement and a kick in the teeth to the NHS people who are being given false hopes by him, Also, it is not helpful in terms of bracing the public and encouraging them to do what is needed: stay home!
UK possible future: 2 possible curves with total cases > 1 million; daily new cases possible as high as 45,000 in worst case. These will be relatively serious cases that turn up at hospital (get "invited" to hospital) because mild cases are not bring tested and the data does not therefore take them into account:
Compare to Italy, S Korea and China:
Italy: now the exponent is -0.05587, a larger negative number than UK but smaller than S Korea and China. The bigger, i.e. more negative the number, the quicker the epidemic ends and the lower the number of total cases. Thus UK (above at -0.02793) is in for a huge epidemic, larger than Italy (-0.05587) and much larger than S Korea (-0.17908) or China (-0.154 and -0.132 at different stages). A much longer and larger epidemic awaits the UK unless performance is improved DRAMATICALLY:
South Korea:
China at end of (first) epidemic
China early on in epidemic:
Please BLOGSPOT, STOP DELETING MY CHARTS FROM MY POSTS!
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