Global COVID-19 Deaths and Cases forecast 6 Apr 2020 - both cumulative totals

Rest of World COVID-19 forecasts (Global total minus China#s original epidemic, because trend cannot be calculated with China included because their epidemic was earlier in time and needs to be treated as a separate system).

 These forecasts include some variations on the analysis for 31 March. There was a subsequent drop for the 5th April forecast due to some points that lowered the trend line. I have taken optimistic and pessimistic trend lines, which include different data sets. The optimistic set is biased more towards recent data (WHO report #59) whereas the pessimistic forecast (includes data back to WHO report #38).
I have taken the geometric means of the pessimistic and optimistic forecasts to give an idea of that the mid-line forecast could be. Interestingly, the case fatality rate of the confirmed cases is around 5-14% which matches well with Italy for example (or the UK currently) in that 7-9% region, presumably because almost all mild cases are not tested:
Author: D Bellamy 2020-04-07
http://covid19stats.blogspot.com

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

UK very slow downtrend COVID not as good as Europe

Europe's curves are still looking better than the UK's but still tragic in deaths terms. R0 likely to be nearer to be 0.5. In UK R0 could be 0.8+ but I am not i the business of calculating that because it is only an instantaneous snapshot measure anyway. What matters are results. UK, Italy, Germany, France and Spain. Forecasts from 20 April are still matching reality pretty well. Less updating was done on France and Spain forecasts - they were not adjusted from a long time ago and use trend lines going way back to early March. These charts are updated as of 11 June but forecast curves are not updated. This shows that the forecasts have held for nearly 2 months. The I present comparisons between UK and other large population European countries. A picture paints a thousand words. Google and YouTube as usual are  making it more and more difficult to use older browsers forcing people to buy new computers. What a scam. I have shown them on YouTube here (only 7 minutes long):
Read more

Letters I wrote to UK Government re COVID19

Here are some highlights of letters that I wrote to my Member of Parliament and to the UK government Prime Minister, Health Minister, the Shadow Health Minister and others on the subject of CO|VID-19. I received no reply to any of them except from Philip Hollobone, my local MP, who messaged Matt Hancock on my behalf and got a fairly terse reply. 1st March my email to MP: : 1mar: We are now no longer part of the nonsensical "freedom of movement of people" dogma that pervades the EU. This could be a deadly conceit on their part. We will see how it pans out for them. In my view, we should look to closing the Channel Tunnel and shutting off flights and ships not only from certain parts of CHina but from S. Korea, Italy, Iran and possibly others as this develops. Failure to act on this holds enormous risks in my view. I don't believe the platitudes from the WHO and some of the talking heads on TV. They are ignoring the high case fatality rate of this disease and assumin
Read more