ICU/CC Intensive care critical bed usage in the UK forecast and ICNARC data

ICU/CC Intensive care critical bed usage in the UK
Weekly ICNARC reports
Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre
Reported critical bed used versus my forecasts from curve below using trend to 6 April. All forecasts based on WHO case data reports 53-78:

 This is the forecast curve (most optimistic, given WHO reports 53-78):

 (c) D. Bellamy 2020.

 Revision late night 08 April 2020 from forecast curves
(range between optimistic and pessimistic forecast curves):

 19&20 March ranges   108-124 and 142-152 
26&27 March ranges   433-513  and 505-612
03&04 April ranges   1525-1673  and  1724 -1883
10&11 April ranges   3388-3428 and  3670-3770
17&18 April ranges   5310-5894 and 5569-6268.
My curves have risen a little more steeply than the actual figures, so far - but it is early in the trend and forecasts are realistic compared to actual numbers from ICNARC.

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