If in UK Don't Go Out In May... and as seldom as possible in April.

Here are three charts from recent forecasting of the UK COVID-19 epidemic in this global pandemic. They are self-explanatory.

They can be improved only by much stronger social distancing in my opinion but of course there is no guarantee of completely squashing the disease if anyone is still moving about running essential services like the utilities, the supply chains and the hospitals - or if we have a constant trickle of inbound infections through our airports and ports of people who think they are so important that the whole country can be quarantined off and held under house arrest so they can travel internationally to go about their crucial business. 

Policy number 1: Close the borders. Rant over.




Don't Go Out In May... and as seldom as possible in April.










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