Italy and UK case and death forecasts 20200408
Italy and UK case and death forecasts 20200408:
Charts:
Charts:
UK very slow downtrend COVID not as good as Europe
Europe's curves are still looking better than the UK's but still tragic in deaths terms. R0 likely to be nearer to be 0.5. In UK R0 could be 0.8+ but I am not i the business of calculating that because it is only an instantaneous snapshot measure anyway. What matters are results. UK, Italy, Germany, France and Spain. Forecasts from 20 April are still matching reality pretty well. Less updating was done on France and Spain forecasts - they were not adjusted from a long time ago and use trend lines going way back to early March. These charts are updated as of 11 June but forecast curves are not updated. This shows that the forecasts have held for nearly 2 months. The I present comparisons between UK and other large population European countries. A picture paints a thousand words. Google and YouTube as usual are making it more and more difficult to use older browsers forcing people to buy new computers. What a scam. I have shown them on YouTube here (only 7 minutes long):...
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