Spain. Italy, France and the UK. Warning for UK to improve or cost will be high.

Here are the curves for Italy, Spain and France. Italy peaked a little while ago, Spain next and possibly France after that, though their numbers are a bit more volatile from day to day:

 Current forecasts for Italy: 
Cumulative cases: 164,665 to 239,162.
Cumulative deaths: 30,364-32,954

 I am very pleased with my forecasting tools especially in terms of their ability to calculate the peak numbers of new daily cases quite accurately in advance. One has to be a little bit careful to change the start points of forecasts in line with the new data and choose a point that is on the forecast equation line each time it is done, so it not an "automatic" process.

 Explanations on charts:

Italy:
Italy deaths:

Spain:
Forecast of total cumulative cases: 338,614 or perhaps fewer because I have not yet constructed an "optimistic" forecast as I did for Italy. I don't have the time time or resources to do everything!

 France trend has improved and the total case numbers might be around the same as Italy's. 
Current forecast is 216,951 total cumulative cases but somewhat uncertain. Similar to Italy really.  This is quite an improvement over a week ago:
UK: high uncertainty as of 5-7 of April. There "should" be a trend change somewhere around now because it is more than two weeks into the lock down (that is not really a lock down, is it?) as per my previous article on this blog entitled 'Lockdowns'. However, I wonder if the dip in new cases was temporary and caused by lack of testing, because deaths have since trended up again. Also, Northampton and possibly Kettering General Hospitals sent their test swabs to Germany (2 days turnaround time) because the UK turnaround time at the UK public Health Labs was 4 days! I suspect we are running out of testing reagents and gear.

 Warning for UK to improve or cost will be high.

 Unless the trend improves more, the potential is for 839,522 to 2,288,741 confirmed cases and up to 161,923 deaths in total on the curves below:

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