UK forecasts as of 10 April STILL BAD.

UK forecasts as of 10 April total cases: 853,751 (pessimistic from WHO data) 452,856 (optimistic from WHO data), 412,913 (mathematical model).
Deaths: 161,838 (from WHO data). The UK forecasts are shrinking but I don't fully trist this shrinkage of the numbers right now. I have seen this kind of volatility in the forecasts before and they often go too optimistic for a while. You need to take some kind of average over time. Anyway, here is the chart:


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