Another bad day for Italy. Forecast has risen from 153054 to 219913. Also RoW nearly = China

Rest of world outside China now has 72,469 confirmed cases (up 10,955) versus China at 81,048 cases (up 27). Tomorrow, the rest of the world will almost certainly overtake China. My original forecast was that if the exponential trend continued, it would do that today. So I was one day early...
https://covid19stats.blogspot.com/2020/03/rest-of-world-might-catch-up-with-china.html
Forecasts based on data up to WHO report #55:

 Italy cumulative cases: up to 219913 from 153084
South Korea cumulative cases: down to 8360 from 8419
China cumulative cases: down to 81299 from 82253
China cumulative deaths: down to 3274 from 3374

Oh dear - another bad day for Italy.
Forecast has risen from 153054 to 219913 cumulative cases at end of epidemic from 150,000 approx on each of the two days before. As you add another data point, the forecast line and equation moves a little and it can make quite a large change to the outcome. As more points are added over time, this volatility should decrease but the % day over day figures in Italy are not improving fast enough to keep the forecast line from rising.

 Forecast:

 Trendline: these new points keep dragging the trendline up just enough to increase the forecast significantly.

 Meanwhile, the South Korea forecast is very steady. Today it dropped just a little from 8,419 to 8,360 with the addition of the new data point from WHO report #54:

South Korea trendline:


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